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ZERT Coffee & ChaosThis show is brought to you by Primary Arms!
Our CAST is Jeremy Pozderac, Savage1R, Aaron Krieger, Nick Lynch and my name is Shawn Herrin.
Tonight we’re going to talk about:
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Five Stars from Richard Enyamouth (Dick):
Probably my favorite podcast on the firearm radio network. Unlike the other shows on the network, WLS bookclub isnt about guns, hunting or relaoding, but rather a place for the cultured gentlemen to cum and discuss the latest novels. Aparently i have read a lot of the same books as Jer Bear, Hap and Leonard being an incredibly underated gem. I was wondering if any of you have read the Joe Ledger novels? I javent heard it discussed yet, but it seems like the kind of thing thay would be up your ally, or maybe up Shawn’s SSB. Anyway, cant wait to hear about this or any other book recomendations on the next episode. And as alwaus, thank you for providing near endless entertainment that continues to make me laugh at work in a quite room full of people.
Five Stars from DanD:
If the cast were items from a gas station.
Shawn, the pot of coffee. Always there to keep you going even if it is not always the freshest.
Nick, a Snickers Bar. There with a quip to get things back on track when the rest of the cast are being drama queens.
Aaron, beef jerkey. Its either good or leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
Jeremy, can of red bull. A little bit gets you focused but too much can send you into a rage and probably stop your heart.
Savage, the hot dog on the grill roller. Half the time it is not there and something else can fill that void.
Together, they make a great snack run that keeps you awake at the wheel.
Keep up the good work and shoot straight!
Five Stars from Anthony D:
Uh overall not bad
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That takes the number of NICS checks (which the FBI publishes) and adjusts it to produce the “NSSF-adjusted NICS” check estimate:
The adjusted NICS data are derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by several states such as Connecticut, Illinois, and Utah for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases.
(Side note, since the blog post from which that excerpt comes was published, Utah has gone to permitless carry. But the methodology still holds up for other states.)
This is a useful, albeit rough, proxy for the number of guns that are sold each month. But it doesn’t tell us much about the size of the industry. Let’s get to the dollars.
The most useful data source comes from tax revenues, of all things. Since 1937, the Pittman-Robertson Act has taken an excise tax on outdoors equipment and allocated the proceeds towards government wildlife programs. The tax is collected from manufacturers and importers, and it’s charged based on the wholesale price of the goods. The tax rates are:
The NSSF reported that in 2023, $944 million out of $998 million in Pittman-Robertson excise tax was paid for guns and ammo. The breakdown of annual averages is that 34% of P-R tax comes from ammo, 25% from handguns, 32% from other firearms and gun parts, and 9% from archery equipment. So put that all together and you get that in 2023, P-R tax was:
Given the tax rates for each category, that means total wholesale revenue for US sales in those categories was:
Wholesale → retail markup varies widely, so we’ll estimate it conservatively at an average of 15%. That would mean that total retail revenue for US sales in 2023 was:
That lands you at guns and ammo being a $10 billion/year business in the US, and that’s before you count the almost-certainly-even-bigger industry of all related accessories. This roughly tracks with the NSSF’s estimate of $33.49 billion in direct economic output from the industry.
Some other industries for comparison:
Not too shabby. We often discuss how guns are a small industry that punches above its weight. And that’s true if the industries you’re comparing to are the truly massive ones like real estate, finance, or tech. But if you compare to consumer-goods industries, it turns out that guns aren’t so small after all.